What are the chances of my minerals getting drilled?

This is the hardest question that every mineral buyer tries to answer, including us. Truth is, minerals aren’t worth much if there’s nothing being pulled out of the ground. Let’s use a statistical but realistic example for simplicity:

Assume there are going to be 300 wells drilled in the Powder River Basin (PRB) in 2020. On average 2 wells will be drilled together in the same 1280 acre drill spacing unit (“DSU”), meaning 150 new DSUs get developed. The core of the PRB covers about 3,000,000 acres. That means in 2020 the chance of a given tract of land getting drilled would be 64.5 out of 1000, or 6.45% (formula = 1280 acres *150 DSUs / 3,000,000 PRB acres).